Day: January 11, 2023

WASHINGTON, Jan 11 (NNN-AGENCIES) — Global growth is expected to slow “perilously close” to recession in 2023, the World Bank said, slashing its economic forecast on high inflation, rising interest rates and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Economists have warned of a slump in the world economy as countries battle soaring costs and central banks simultaneously hiked interest rates to cool demand — worsening financial conditions amid ongoing disruptions from the war in Ukraine.

The World Bank’s latest forecast points to a “sharp, long-lasting slowdown” with growth pegged at 1.7 percent, roughly half the pace it predicted in June, said the bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report.

This is among the weakest rates seen in nearly three decades, overshadowed only by the pandemic-induced recession of 2020 and global financial crisis in 2009.

“Given fragile economic conditions, any new adverse development… could push the global economy into recession,” the Washington-based development lender said.

These include higher-than-expected inflation, sudden spikes in interest rates to contain price increases, or a pandemic resurgence.

In advanced economies such as the United States, growth will likely slow to 0.5 percent in 2023 — 1.9 points below June’s forecast.

Meanwhile, the euro area is expected to flatline as it battles severe energy supply disruptions and price hikes related to Russia’s invasion.

China is predicted to expand 4.3 percent this year, 0.9 points lower than earlier forecast, in part due to lingering pandemic disruptions and property sector weakness.

The outlook is “particularly devastating for many of the poorest economies, where poverty reduction has already ground to a halt,” the bank added.

“Emerging and developing countries are facing a multi-year period of slow growth driven by heavy debt burdens and weak investment,” warned World Bank President David Malpass.

Central banks including the US Federal Reserve have been hiking interest rates over the past year to fight inflation, but the drag on economies is “set to deepen” as policies take effect, the World Bank said.

“The world’s three major engines of growth — the United States, the euro area, and China — are undergoing a period of pronounced weakness, with adverse spillovers for emerging market and developing economies,” the bank added.

For now, inflation has risen, nudged up by pandemic-era support, supply shocks and in some cases, currency depreciations relative to the US dollar.

While inflation is expected to ease, it will still remain above pre-pandemic levels, the bank said.

The broad-based slowdown and weak growth does not mark a recession just yet, said Ayhan Kose, head of the bank’s forecast unit.

But in the near-term, the bank is watching out for “the possibility of financial stress, if interest rates go up higher at the global level,” he said.

If this happens and inflation remains persistent, “that could trigger a global recession,” he said.

And if financing conditions get tighter, there will likely be more debt crises this year, he warned.

Among the hardest-hit areas is Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for some 60 percent of the world’s extreme poor.

Its growth in per capita income over this year and next is expected to average just 1.2 percent, “a rate that could cause poverty rates to rise, not fall,” said the World Bank.

The report also flagged challenges faced by small states with a population of 1.5 million or less, which have been hurt especially hard by the pandemic.

They often experience losses related to climate disasters “that average roughly five percent of GDP per year,” the bank said.

“Given the higher likelihood of these types of natural disasters, we need to take into account these risks materializing more often down the road,” Kose stressed.

Source: NAM NEWS NETWORK

UNITED NATIONS, Jan 11 (NNN-Xinhua) — An estimated 5 million children died before their fifth birthday and another 2.1 million children and youth aged between 5 and 24 years lost their lives in 2021, according to the latest estimates released by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation.

In a separate report also released on Tuesday, the group found that 1.9 million babies were stillborn during the same period.

“Every day, far too many parents are facing the trauma of losing their children, sometimes even before their first breath,” said Vidhya Ganesh, UN Children’s Fund director of the Division of Data Analytics, Planning and Monitoring, in a press release. “Such widespread, preventable tragedy should never be accepted as inevitable. Progress is possible with stronger political will and targeted investment in equitable access to primary health care for every woman and child.”

The reports show some positive outcomes with a lower risk of death across all ages globally since 2000. The global under-5 mortality rate fell by half since the start of the century, while mortality rates in older children and youth dropped by 36 percent, and the stillbirth rate decreased by 35 percent. This can be attributed to more investments in strengthening primary health systems to benefit women, children and young people.

However, gains have reduced significantly since 2010, and 54 countries will fall short of meeting the Sustainable Development Goals target for under-5 mortality. Unless swift action is taken to improve health services, almost 59 million children and youth will die before 2030, and nearly 16 million babies will be lost to stillbirth, warn the agencies.

Children continue to face wildly differentiating chances of survival based on where they are born, with sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia shouldering the heaviest burden, the reports show.

Though sub-Saharan Africa had just 29 percent of global live births, the region accounted for 56 percent of all under-5 deaths in 2021, and Southern Asia for 26 percent of the total. Children born in sub-Saharan Africa are subject to the highest risk of childhood death in the world — 15 times higher than the risk for children in Europe and Northern America.

Mothers in these two regions also endure the painful loss of babies to stillbirth at an exceptional rate, with 77 percent of all stillbirths in 2021 occurring in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Nearly half of all stillbirths happened in sub-Saharan Africa. The risk of a woman having a stillborn baby in sub-Saharan Africa is seven times more likely than in Europe and North America, the reports show.

Access to and availability of quality health care continues to be a matter of life or death for children globally. Most child deaths occur in the first five years, of which half are within the very first month of life. For those youngest babies, premature birth and complications during labor are the leading causes of death. Similarly, more than 40 percent of stillbirths occur during labor, most of which are preventable when women have access to quality care throughout pregnancy and birth. For children that survive past their first 28 days, infectious diseases like pneumonia, diarrhea and malaria pose the biggest threat, according to the reports.

While COVID-19 has not directly increased childhood mortality, with children facing a lower likelihood of dying from the disease than adults, the pandemic may have increased future risks to their survival. In particular, the reports highlight concerns around disruptions to vaccination campaigns, nutrition services, and access to primary health care, which could jeopardize their health and well-being for many years to come. In addition, the pandemic has fuelled the largest continued backslide in vaccinations in three decades, putting the most vulnerable newborns and children at greater risk of dying from preventable diseases.

Source: NAM NEWS NETWORK

UNITED NATIONS— UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed the launch of the final phase in the political process toward restoring a civilian-led transition in Sudan, said his spokesman.

This step builds on the progress achieved on the signing of the Political Framework Agreement on Dec 5, 2022, and marks another important step forward toward realizing the aspirations of the Sudanese people for democracy, peace, and sustainable development, said Stephane Dujarric, the spokesman, in a statement.

The United Nations, through the Trilateral Mechanism comprised of the UN transition assistance mission in Sudan, the African Union, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, remains committed to supporting the process and helping secure a final political agreement over the coming weeks, said the statement.

“To ensure a lasting settlement, the secretary-general underscores the importance of including the broadest array of Sudanese stakeholders, including women, youth, and civil society. He also urges key stakeholders which did not sign the Dec 5 agreement to join the political process,” it said.

“Finally, he stresses the importance of strong and coordinated international support to the political process under the framework of the Trilateral Mechanism.”

Source: NAM NEWS NETWORK

The United States accused Russian military contractors backed by the Kremlin on January 10 of interfering in the internal affairs of African countries and “increasing the likelihood that violent extremism will grow” in the Sahel region, which is facing increasing attacks and deteriorating security, an allegation Russia denied. U.S. Deputy Ambassador Richard Mills lashed out at the Vagner Group at a UN Security Council meeting, accusing its paramilitary forces of failing to address the extremist threat, robbing countries of their resources, committing human rights abuses, and endangering the safety and security of UN peacekeepers and staff.

Copyright (c) 2015. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.

Forces in Ethiopia’s northernmost Tigray region on Wednesday announced starting the handing over of heavy weapons to the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) as part of an African Union-led peace process.

The disarmament process is a central part of the peace deal signed last November between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Accordingly, the first handing over of heavy weaponry took over on Tuesday in the town of Agulae, around 30 km (18 miles) northeast of the regional capital Mekelle.

“Tigray has handed over its heavy weapons as part of its commitment to implementing the Pretoria agreement,” TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda who also signed the Pretoria peace agreement on behalf of Tigray said in a tweet Wednesday.

“We hope & expect this will go a long way in expediting the full implementation of the agreement. We hope & expect!”

The handing over was held in the presence of the African Union observers, monitoring teams from the two sides and a regional body, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

At the occasion, Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) representative Mulugeta Gebrechristos said the start of the disarmament would play a major role in restoring peace.

“We are operating with the belief that if we are to have peace, all things that open the door for provocation must not be there. Peace is vital for us all,” Mulugeta said in a speech broadcast on the local Tigray TV.

Representative of the Ethiopian army Lieutenant colonel Aleme Tadele on his part confirmed receiving different heavy weapons in accordance with the peace agreement.

“We are all [part of] one Ethiopia. Both us [ENDF and TPLF] and the TDF have moved from our respective defensive positions in peace, understanding and love,” said Aleme Tadesse.

Armored tanks, various sizes of artilleries, rockets and mortars were among the heavy weaponry handed over.

The terms of the November 2 peace agreement include disarming Tigray forces and restoring federal authority in Tigray.

In return, the Ethiopian government will restore long-halted basic services such as air transportation, electricity, and banking services which have been cut off for over 18 months.

It will also allow unfettered humanitarian access to Tigray, where 80 % of the region’s estimated seven million people remain aid dependent.

A follow-up November 12 implementation deal signed in Nairobi further states the disarmament of heavy Tigrayan weapons would take place at the same time as the withdrawal of Eritrean and non-federal forces.

However, it is not yet clear if the Eritrean soldiers had fully withdrawn from territories of the Tigray region.

Fighting broke out in November 2020 when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed deployed the army to arrest Tigrayan leaders who had been challenging his authority for months and whom he accused of attacking federal military bases.

Neighboring Eritrea has supported the Ethiopian army in fighting in the region but Asmara was not part of the Pretoria talks.

Source: Sudan Tribune

The World Health Organization declared Uganda free from Ebola on Wednesday, 42 days since the last infection was recorded.

The outbreak of the Sudan strain of the virus, which started in September, has left 55 people dead. The declaration was made at a function in Mubende district, now known as the epicenter of the fifth outbreak of the Ebola Sudan virus in Uganda.

Dr. Jane Ruth Aceng, Uganda’s health minister, noted that the major drivers of transmission were household infection and gatherings at private facilities. The three main portals of transmission were physical contact, sexual contact and trans-placental transmission.

“I now confirm that all transmission chains have been fully interrupted,” Aceng said. “And take this opportunity to declare that outbreak is over and Uganda is now free of active Ebola transmission.”

The Mubende district registered the highest number of confirmed cases with 64 patients and 29 deaths.

At the onset of the Ebola outbreak, Naiga Juliet worked her usual routine as a laboratory attendant at Mubende Referral Hospital. With about seven health workers dying due to Ebola, many people were afraid to approach patients.

Juliet, who later was to be the Ebola laboratory sample coordinator, recalled that on September 17, a patient was admitted who tested positive for Ebola the next day. That was the start of the Ebola outbreak, and a followup of contacts was quickly carried out.

“I took off those samples. They were eight patients, six turned out positive. I was in panic,” Juliet said. “I had to notify my lawyers and my family about what might happen. I was traumatized, psychologically tortured. Because even my colleagues feared and they didn’t even enter there. But me, actually, I knew how to put on the PPE [Personal Protective Equipment], practicing infection, prevention and control. That’s what saved me.”

By the end of October, the neighboring Kassanda district registered 12 cases within two days, prompting health authorities to open up an Ebola treatment unit there.

Nabuuma Maska, a resident of Kassanda district, has adopted a third name, Kawonawo, literally meaning survivor. Maska said she visited a sick relative, unaware that the relative had Ebola and would die soon after from the virus.

Maska told VOA that three days later, she showed symptoms of Ebola, including severe headache, bleeding through the nose, diarrhea and vomiting.

She said she called the ambulance and was taken to hospital, then lost consciousness for three weeks. When she regained her senses, she said she was greeted with health workers saying, “welcome back, welcome back.”

Maska said she has since faced social stigma in her village.

She said her family suddenly ran away from her, and her landlord kicked her out of her house for failure to pay her rent. She said she used to own a business but lost it, and now can’t afford to buy food or pay for shelter.

By the end of the pandemic, Kassanda district registered 49 confirmed cases and 21 deaths among the 143 cases and 55 deaths countrywide.

Ugandans have been urged to continue being vigilant and report any person in the community that displays Ebola-like symptoms.

The Health Ministry, working with international partners, said it continues to look for the possible source of the outbreak and the reason why Uganda tends to suffer from Ebola outbreaks from July to October.

Source: Voice of America