Day: January 10, 2023

Growth in emerging market and developing economies will be hit hard over the next two years, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report.

Globally, growth continues to slow sharply due to rising inflation and interest rates, reduced investment, and supply disruptions caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Any new adverse development could further push the global economy into recession, said the World Bank. This includes higher-than-expected inflation rates, abrupt rises in interest rates to contain it, a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic, or escalating geopolitical tensions.

Yet, faced with extremely high government debt levels and rising interest rates advanced economies are absorbing global capital.

Poverty rates to rise

Per-capita income growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to average 2.8 per cent, a full percentage point lower than the 2010-2019 average.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for about 60 per cent of the world’s extreme poor, growth in per capita income over 2023-24 is expected to average just 1.2 per cent, a rate that could cause poverty rates to rise, not fall.

“The crisis facing development is intensifying as the global growth outlook deteriorates,” said World Bank Group President, David Malpass.

“Emerging and developing countries are facing a multi-year period of slow growth driven by heavy debt burdens and weak investment in business. This will compound the already-devastating reversals in education, health, poverty, and infrastructure and the increasing demands from climate change.”

Global recession predicted

The report projects that growth in advanced economies is to slow from 2.5 per cent in 2022, to 0.5 per cent in 2023. Over the past two decades, slowdowns of this scale have foreshadowed a global recession.

In the United States, growth is forecast to fall to 0.5 per cent this year -1.9 percentage points below previous forecasts and the weakest performance outside of official recessions since 1970.

In 2023, Euro-area growth is expected at zero per cent – a downward revision of 1.9 percentage points. In China, growth is projected at 4.3 per cent; 0.9 percentage points below previous forecasts.

Excluding China, growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to decelerate from 3.8 per cent in 2022, to 2.7 per cent in 2023.

By the end of 2024, GDP levels in emerging and developing economies will be roughly six per cent below levels expected before the pandemic.

Over the 2022-2024 period, gross investment in these economies is likely to grow by about 3.5 per cent on average – less than half the rate of the previous two decades.

Latin America and the Caribbean

Meanwhile, figures from the United Nations’ latest flagship annual report on goods exports from Latin America and the Caribbean, show a 20 per cent increase in 2022, but a drop in growth from the previous year.

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimates the growth was driven by a 14 per cent rise in prices and an expansion of 6 per cent in export volumes.

The Commission also found that the value of regional goods imports increased by 24 per cent.

Like in 2021, the expansion was driven mainly by external factors (the rise in prices of raw materials, particularly fuel), and not by the capacity to increase export volumes or diversify regional export supply toward new sectors.

Source: United Nations

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) thwarted an attempt to smuggle Sudanese military uniforms into the neighbouring Central African Republic (CAR).

Sudan recently announced the closure of the CAR border and the deployment of troops along the southwestern strip after discovering the recruitment of mercenaries from the Darfur region and Chad to carry out military action against the government in Bangui.

According to a statement issued on Monday, an RSF border monitoring force foiled an attempt to smuggle large quantities of Sudanese military uniforms through Um Dafouq area on the border with the CAR.

She said that the operation was carried out after the availability of accurate information to the intelligence of the Rapid Support Forces, and after follow-up and monitoring, a tight ambush was set up that resulted in the seizure of quantities of military uniforms and the arrest of smugglers.

The RSF ambushed the smugglers and seized the military uniform after receiving intelligence about the operation, further said the statement.

The commander of the mobile border protection force, Brigadier General Absher Gibril Balail, stressed the continuation of efforts to maintain security and reduce all types of smuggling on the border.

“The smuggling of Sudanese military uniforms to form a new military force acting on the border with Central Africa is a threat to national security,” stressed Balail.

In 2015, the Sudanese defence ministry established SUR factory for military clothing with Turkish and Qatari partners.

SUR has contracts with several neighbouring countries.

Source: Sudan Tribune

Kenya’s President William Ruto said he fully supports last year’s Political Framework Agreement signed between the Transitional Sovereignty Council and the civilian political actors in Sudan.

Ruto reaffirmed a strong commitment to a peaceful future for Sudan, saying the agreement sets out a foundation for broad-based consultations.

“It is in this regard that Kenya welcomes such broad-based Consultations between the Signatories to the Framework Agreement which are already ongoing in Khartoum,” Ruto said in a statement issued Tuesday.

He added, “Exploring solutions to outstanding issues such as Security Sector Reforms and decisions on the future political system of the country.”

According to the Kenyan leader, peace in Sudan is critical for the prosperity and stability of the Horn of Africa and the continent.

On December 5, 2022, Sudan’s ruling military council and political forces signed a framework agreement meant to resolve the country’s long crisis.

The deal was signed by the head of the Sovereign Council of Sudan, Gen. Abdul Fattah Al-Burhan, Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and a number of rebel movements.

The agreement pledges a 2-year transition period and the appointment of a civilian prime minister by the political parties that signed the framework agreement.

It also calls for the reform of the military and defense sector, unifying the military and integrating the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) into the army.

The framework agreement was signed amid mass protests staged by pro-democracy demonstrators in Khartoum to show their opposition to the accord.

Sudan has been without a functioning government since October 2021 when the military ousted Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s transitional government and declared a state of emergency.

Source: Sudan Tribune

Sudanese teachers have embarked on another three-week stretch of nationwide comprehensive strike action after what they termed a disappointing meeting with the Minister of Finance last week, who not only refused to meet their demands, but also abandoned previous promises.

The Sudanese Teachers Committee (STC) reported yesterday that more than 16,000 schools in Sudan are participating in the strike, which also took place throughout much of December with previous industrial action in November as well.

Sami El Bagir, spokesperson for the Sudanese Teachers Committee (STC), said in a press conference in Khartoum yesterday that the strike will continue until all their demands are met.

The strike had been set to last at least until January 28.

El Bagir told Radio Dabanga that the reports received from the states confirm the implementation of the strike action, with the closure of schools, in more than 90 per cent of schools in the country.

The comprehensive school closure was implemented on Sunday in 10 states whilst three other states witnessed partial closures on the first day of the strike.

Earlier, the STC had already explained that teachers in the Blue Nile region and South Kordofan are not participating in the strike is due to the special circumstances in the two regions, she said.

“We are in continuous contact about the strike with teachers in these areas.” Both regions witnessed significant violence and insecurity recently.

Classes continue in the many private schools in the country, in particular in the capital.

“The economic conditions are very difficult. The monthly salary of a teacher who has spent 30 years in service is equivalent to $120, so after we reached a dead end at the Finance Ministry on Thursday, we decided to close the schools in order to obtain our rights.”

Disappointing govt response

The teachers hold the government “fully responsible for the consequences of the teachers’ strike,” he said.

“Our meeting with the Minister of Finance [in Khartoum on Thursday] was disappointing, which necessitated us to declare a comprehensive strike for three weeks,” he explained.

Finance Minister Jibril Ibrahim informed them that there would be no space for an increase in minimum wage in the 2023 budget, “which means that the teachers will have to cope with a worse situation this year”.

The Finance Ministry also abandoned its previous agreement related to new allowances for teachers, amounting to 50 per cent of their basic salary and reneged its previous commitment to pay discrepancies in their dues for three months.

After earlier strikes in November, the Service Affairs Bureau promised 6 per cent increase in wages, but teachers lament that this barely covered the rise in the cost of living in Sudan and ignores high inflation rates.

On November 28, the Teachers’ Strike Committee also organised a nationwide comprehensive strike because they had not received their full financial dues, such as back payments that were owed to them as far back as 2020.

The meeting with the Minister of Finance “has reached a dead end,” El Bagir said. The Minister told them during the meeting: “You will not find solutions with me. There will be no increases, so you better go to the Sovereignty Council,” El bagir explained.

He further denied that the teachers’ strike is linked to politics and said he hopes that the families and parents of the students will understand the reasons for the strike, “even if it leads to changes in the school calendar”.

Problematic decisions

STC member for the states, Mohamed Hamed, further lamented the fact that a decision according to which the salaries for teachers were increased for two months was implemented in central Sudan (Khartoum area), but not in the rest of the states.

“This practice is part of the policy of divide and rule,” he said.

Duriya Babiker, member of the STC Executive Office, meanwhile lamented the implementation of standardised exams.

“By imposing standardised exams, the teachers will not be able to evaluate their students correctly anymore,” she said at the press conference. “Its sole purpose is to collect more exam fees, which only increases the burden on the students’ families.”

Threats and repression

A number of schools in Khartoum received “violent threats”, El Bagir said and accused “a high executive authority of being behind these threats”.

In White Nile state, education departments in various administrative units threatened teachers with transfer, dismissal, and suspension of their salaries in an attempt to break the strike.

Howeida El Ameen, spokesperson for the White Nile state Teachers Committee, told Radio Dabanga that teacher Hamad El Tom was dismissed in Shabsa in El Duweim, where policemen also chased students on the streets after they refused to sit for exams.

She said that the strike participation rate in secondary schools is particularly high. “About 85 percent” of staff is participating in the strike in the state.

To pre-empt the strike, the authorities in North Darfur, Northern State, and Red Sea state, suspended classes while the authorities in Sennar instructed trial exams to take place this month.

In many places, authorities are hoping to exhaust the striking teachers by not giving in to their demands and suspending classes ahead of the strike action, El Bagir explained.

“The authorities are betting on prolonging the period of closing schools in order for the teachers to lose their resolve and resort to continuing their work.”

Source: Radio Dabanga

Sudan and Kenya have promised to play their role in sustaining peace and stability in neighbouring South Sudan.

This came after a meeting between Kenya’s Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Deputy Chairman of the Sudan Transitional Sovereignty Council, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, in Nairobi on Monday.

“South Sudan is important to us as it is to Sudan in the peace of the region. Kenya will do what it can to ensure peace in South Sudan,” said Dagalo.

Dagalo further said they were working to ensure the South Sudan peace agreement is fully implemented. He said there were complexities that still needed to be worked on but promised they were keen on clearing them.

Meanwhile, Kenya’s Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua said Kenya will continue to enhance its relations with Sudan so as to foster the existing bilateral ties enjoyed by the two Eastern African countries.

Rigathi said his country was keen on ensuring the ties between the two nations remained strong and mutually beneficial.

“We appreciate the cooperation between our countries. Sudan imports a lot of tea from Kenya and we would like you to import more because our tea is the best in the world,” said the DP.

Both countries are members of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) which has been spearheading the peace process in South Sudan.

Last week, Kenya’s President William Ruto announced that the regional bloc IGAD will hold a Summit before the end of January, with a focus on the peace process in South Sudan.

South Sudan is governed by a transitional government formed under the peace agreement signed in neighbouring Ethiopia.

On 4 August 2022, parties to the peace agreement extended the agreement, postponing general elections until late 2024.

The extension was signed by the parties due to the lack of progress on many provisions of the peace agreement.

Source: Radio Tamazuj

An ‘empowerment removal roadmap conference’ was held in Khartoum yesterday morning to initiate the renewal of the empowerment* removal process. A new Empowerment Removal Committee (ERC) will be formed in the future, but without members of the previous committee that was suspended after the 2021 military coup.

Co-chair of the now suspended ERC, Mohamed El Faki, confirmed that the former members of the committee will not participate in the new one, which will be formed later.

In his speech during the opening of the ‘empowerment removal roadmap conference’ yesterday morning, El Faki said that “the conference aims to address shortcomings and failures of the former committee and to harmonise its work with the rest of the state institutions”.

El Faki, who was also member of the Sovereignty Council during the government of Abdallah Hamdok (2019-2021), said that the new committee will work under a full civilian government and “its working conditions will be better than the previous committee because it will not start from scratch”.

The work of the ERC in 2020 and 2021 has been widely criticised for “being too assertive, not always following legal procedures, and making decisions too fast”. El Faki explained that the committee “suffered from a scarcity of funding and was therefore unable to attract experienced, first-class cadres”.

“Despite all the challenges, the committee was able to achieve a lot, which made the Sudanese street rally around the committee and protect it from political intervention,” he added.

El Faki concluded his speech by saying that “Sudan will not be stable unless justice and accountability are achieved, and this is what the Empowerment Removal Committee is doing.”

In an interview with Radio Dabanga, Economics Professor and member of Sudan’s Communist Party Sidgi Kaballo explained that, since the coup, military authorities have (re-)appointed a ‘second wave’ the Islamic Movement members and others affiliated with the former regime of dictator Omar Al Bashir in all service institutions, banks, and justice institutions. Kaballo described this as ‘re-empowerment’.

Recently, the 15-year-old daughter leading ERC member El Tayeb Yousef Osman was abducted and gang-raped on Friday. Fellow ERC member Salah Manaa tweeted that “the reason for the girl’s rape is her father’s work for the committee”.

Conference seats

Khaled Omar Yousef, leading member of the Forces for Freedom and Change-Central council (FFC-CC) and official spokesperson for the current political process that is to lead to a Final Agreement with the military junta, explained in press statements prior to the launch of the roadmap conference that “a broad societal base is needed for the Final Agreement”.

For this reason, the FFC-CC decided to allocate less than 40 per cent of the seats at the conference to the signatories to the Framework Agreement.

“Therefore, more than 60 per cent of the seats have been reserved for the civil, professional, and academic sectors, along with legal experts, religious and community leaders, and representatives of the security sector,” he said.

“The outcomes of the conference should reflect the largest social base possible, so that this process is characterised by inclusiveness and includes the opinions of the stakeholders.”

He explained that “all upcoming workshops on the issues of the Juba Peace Agreement, the Eastern Sudan Peace Protocol, justice and transitional justice, and security and military reform, will be dealt with in the same way as the empowerment removal conference, though considering that the issues are different in their specificity and the nature of their participants”.

‘No real reform’

Wajdi Saleh, a leading member of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party and a former chairperson of the Empowerment Removal Committee, described the roadmap conference as “a formality”. He said that “nothing will lead to real reform while the coup leaders are still in power”.

The Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party withdrew from the Forces for Freedom and Change alliance in December as they opposed the Framework Agreement with the military junta.

“The power is in the hands of the putschists, who dissolved the ERC and returned the money, property, and assets confiscated by the committee to the thieves [affiliates of the Al Bashir regime],” Saleh explained to Radio Dabanga.

Saleh himself was arrested by the military junta, faced significant legal challenges, and saw his home attacked since the military coup. He has been an outspoken opponent of the ousted Al Bashir regime.

“The reform will not really affect the military institution, “he said. “Any new vision will not provide for the required dismantling of the judicial institutions, but only reform them. These are two really different concepts.”

He said that “the final stage of the current political process after the signing of the Framework Agreement will not lead the country to the desired democratic transformation which are the goals of the revolution”.

“What is happening in the political scene is nothing but a legitimisation of the coup. The beneficiaries of the agreements with the putschists are parties that turned against the revolution.”

He emphasised that “our problem is not with the military, but with its leaders. The putschists’ position is tactical and aims to dismantle the forces of the living revolution. The Final Agreement will not lead the military to the barracks, nor will it lead to subjugating the military establishment to a new civilian government”.

Rejection

Saleh and his Ba’ath Party are not the only ones who are disillusioned by the current political process to reach a Final Agreement with the military junta.

The Communist Party of Sudan renewed its rejection of agreements with the military junta. “The political process does not reflect the aspirations of the people,” the party said in a statement on Monday.

A number of leaders of the displaced in South and Central Darfur also reject “the final phase of the political process”, as it “does not address the aspirations of the displaced”.

Ishag Mohamed Abdallah, Sheikh of Kalma camp for the displaced in South Darfur, told Radio Dabanga: “we are not a party to the current agreement and we have not been consulted”.

He said that the ongoing political process “underestimates the security situation of the displaced”.

A displaced community leader in Mershing, South Darfur, said that the Framework Agreement does not address the security situation of the displaced either, whilst highlighting that the displaced are unable to leave the camps in Mershing due to the continued violence and attacks.

El Shafee Abdallah, chairperson of the Darfur Displaced and Refugees Coordination, also said that the issues of the displaced and refugees are not addressed in the current political process.

He accused the FFC-CC of hijacking the revolution and not achieving its goals and condemned the heavy international and regional interference in the political process “in order to achieve the interests and agenda of other countries”.

Source: Radio Dabanga