Day: August 13, 2022

The recent attacks by the Somali al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabab militant group in the Ethiopian depth represent a dangerous development in the Horn of Africa. Nonetheless, the group does not intend to stop there but plans to spread to several countries, including Sudan.

Al-Shabab last July attacked several positions in eastern Ethiopia, Somali Region in Ethiopia, before the Ethiopian Defence Forces hit the assailants and prevent their advance.

The Ethiopian army inflicted heavy losses on the jihadist militants in lives and equipment, killed more than 100 of its members, captured 70 others and destroyed its military mechanisms. However, their attacks indicate the launch of an expansion strategy on the ground to establish a military system with regional and external ramifications. This step requires building armed groups affiliated to the organization in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia as well as other countries in the Horn of Africa to enable them to reach all the troubled and unstable areas in East and Central Africa and the Red Sea Coast.

Expansion plans

Al-Shabab, which occupies about 25% of Somalia, plans to expand into Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia before heading to South Sudan, Sudan’s troubled areas in the Blue Nile region, the Sudan – Ethiopia border areas, and the Benishangul region. Then they plan to advance north to link up with the armed Reform Movement of Eritrea, which has a large presence in the border areas between Eritrea and Sudan.

This development reveals a deployment map for terrorist cordon in a region experiencing security turmoil, instability, civil wars and tribal conflicts, in addition to border disputes between neighbouring countries. Further, the border porosity paves the way for the infiltration of terrorist elements to build gathering sites for their forces. There is a field for the activity of these militant groups in more than one location and direction within the countries of the region.

This situation shows a terrorist cordon in the midst of a highly troubled environment that witnesses security turmoil, instability, civil wars and armed tribal conflicts.

If the penetration of the Somali youth movement into Ethiopia is described as a dangerous development, the most dangerous is their plans to advance to other regions, including South Sudan and Sudan.

Before retiring in July 2022, General Stephen Townsend, former Commander of the U.S. Military Command in Africa (AFRICOM), warned that the terrorist threat was escalating in the African continent, in light of the expansion of the activities of militant Islamist groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda in a number of flashpoints of conflict and violence in eastern and western Africa.

Sudan… Eternal interest

The one who was particularly interested in Sudan is the Sudanese jihadist Ibrahim al-Qussi aka ” Abu Khabib al-Sudani” who confirmed in his latest publication the “Nuggets from the History of al-Qaeda”, which was issued several months ago, the extent of the interest of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in establishing branches in Somalia that will be the centre of its activity from Khartoum. Then formed the first “armed nucleus” of Somali fighters in Sudan during Laden’s presence in Sudan in the first quarter of the nineties.

Al-Qussi, one of bin Laden’s most important companions, who is currently the second man of al-Qaeda in Yemen, revealed that bin Laden, during his stay in Khartoum, established investment projects and economic companies that contributed to increasing his wealth and property. This helped him implement several of al-Qaeda’s programs and plans aiming to penetrate African countries and build a “global front for jihad” based in Sudan and extending eastward to cover Eritrea, and Ethiopia before heading to Somalia, Djibouti and Kenya. The plans included coordinating and allying with the Sudanese army to liberate South Sudan from the grip of the SPLM led by John Garang to establish Islamic law.

Al-Qussi was known for his warning message to the Americans in Somalia “Prepare your coffins and increase prosthetic limbs”. It illustrates the strong link between al-Qaeda in Yemen and its branch in Somalia, as it meant to incite the Somali al Shebab militant group to strike U.S. interests in Somalia.

In 2013, he sent his close friend Rashad Qureshi Osman aka “Abu Turab Al-Sudani” on an expedition to Sudan to explore establishing military cells along the Red Sea coast and using the mountain range and caves as training centres before launching military activity along the Red Sea coastline.

Sudan, the spearhead of the al-Shabab group

So far, there are no accurate statistics for the number of Kenyan, Ethiopian and Sudanese elements in the Somali al-Shabab group, but initial estimates indicate that the number of Kenyan fighters is second after the Somalis, then the Ethiopians in third place, followed by fighters from Arab countries and the Sudanese. However, the militant group has been intimately linked to the Sudanese jihadists.

Tariq Mohamed Nur, aka “Talha al-Sudani”, is the first to attempt to establish a branch of al-Qaeda in Somalia, when he was commissioned directly by Osama bin Laden. The relationship of al-Shabab with Sudan is stronger than with Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda, through networking that began with the establishment of the group in the second half of the year 2000 and before that with the Union of Islamic Courts.

In a ddition, large numbers of the leaders of the Somali movement studied in Sudanese universities and were connected to the former regime of President Omer al-Bashir. Among the most prominent of those who studied in Sudan and were associated with the former regime in Sudan were Ahmed Abdi Godan and the former deputy head of al-Shebab group Mukhtar Robow aka “Abu Mansour”, who was “recently appointed Minister of Religious Affairs and Combating Terrorism” in the new government after his defection from the militant group in 2015.

Also, large numbers of young Sudanese joined al-Shabab. The first vanguards to join the Somali group were Suhaib Salem and Abdel-Aziz Hassan Mubarak, both were killed in Mogadishu several years ago. Before them, there were Musab Bashir, Osama Salah and Mohamed Saleh, all three were killed during air strikes carried out by the U.S. Air Force on the headquarters of the group’s forces in southern Somalia.

In 2009, Sudanese security authorities arrested youth groups that tried to travel from Khartoum to join al-Shabab’s forces in Somalia. Also, facilitators who organised the travel of Sudanese militants to Somalia were arrested. At the time, Somalia was a favourite attraction for Sudanese extremists who dubbed it “Afghanistan II”.

Among them is Abu Mohamed al-Sudani, the most prominent leader of The Guardians of Religion Organization affiliated with al-Qaeda in Syria. He was in Somalia before being killed in an air strike by the international coalition aircraft in the Syrian region of Idlib in 2020.

Sudan also served as a corridor and transit country for international terrorists who heading to Somalia to join al-Shabab through Khartoum. The Sudanese capital represented a starting point for the Islamist fighters from around the world to reach Somalia during the past two decades.

The escape of members of the terrorist cell involved in the assassination of U.S. diplomat John Granville in early 2008 to Somalia showed the strong relationship between the al-Shabab group and the Sudanese militants affiliated with al-Qaeda.

Muhannad Osman Youssif, Mohamed Makkawi Ibrahim, and Abdel Basit Haj al-Hassan appeared in the ranks of the al-Shabab group after their escape from Kober prison in Khartoum North in 2011.

A short time later, Youssif was killed during armed clashes against the American forces in the courtyard of the presidential palace in Mogadishu, while al-Shabab assassinated Ibrahim after his defection and allegiance to ISIS in 2015. Al-Hassan is still in the ranks of the al-Shebab group.

The departure of this trio from Sudan and their arrival in Somalia confirms the ease of infiltration of fighters from the country to Somalia through routes starting from the east of Sudan, passing through Eritrea, then Ethiopia, before reaching the final destination in Somalia. Vice versa, these militants can easily advance from Somalia to the same countries.

Execution of bin Laden’s will

The transition of the al-Shabab militant group from a Somali armed movement to an armed movement with multinational cells in Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia and Sudan during the next stage poses the greatest threat to these countries, which are facing security and economic challenges.

The fragile stability of the four countries makes them fertile environments for the growth and rise of violent religious extremism and terrorism. In addition, the rise of polarization of the world community fuels further the expansion of terrorism and increases the warm-up of the terrorist groups.

Ethiopia recently dispatched more troops to Somalia to fight the militants of the al-Qaeda-affiliated group in response to cross-border attacks in Ethiopia in July.

According to Somali media, Ethiopian soldiers arrived in Gedo and the central Hiiraan regions.

On August 7, Ethiopian forces killed over 800 jihadist militants during days of heavy fighting near the border between the two countries and captured about 100 others, according to Mustafa Muhumed Omer, President of the Somali Region in Ethiopia.

Source: Sudan Tribune

Rebels led by South Sudan’s ex-army chief, Gen. Paul Malong has accused government forces of attacking its bases in Greater Bahr el Ghazal region in contravention of a ceasefire deal.

South Sudan United Front/Army (SSUF/A), in a statement, condemned the attacks which allegedly resulted in some of its officers taken hostage.

“We call upon the Community of Sant’Egidio particularly the CTSAMVM [Ceasefire & Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring & Verification Mechanism] to investigate the matter and exert pressure on Juba to release that hostage officer by the name Maj. Wol Bol and hand him back to our possession unharmed,” SSUF/A said in a statement issued on Saturday.

CTSAMVM is the body mandated to monitor and verify the implementation of the agreement on the cessation of hostilities as per the 2018 peace deal.

Last month, South Sudanese opposition parties and government agreed to fully implement the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) and ensure all armed forces and its affiliates under its command and control at all times observe the ceasefire agreement, particularly provisions of prohibited acts.

The resolution on the ceasefire deal was reached at the end of an induction training course organized by the ceasefire monitors in Rome, Italy.

The parties also agreed to prevent any breach of the ceasefire agreement.

The parties further agreed to disseminate the CoHA, sensitize and train forces and affiliates under their command, control to ensure full compliance and undertake to hold forces accountable for violations.

SSUF/A, in the statement extended to Sudan Tribune, threatened that it would withdraw its commitment to the cessation of hostilities agreement should government forces continue attacking its positions in the Greater Bahr eh Ghazal region.

In March 2021, representatives of the government and South Sudan Opposition Movements Alliance (SSOMA) faction led Malong and Pagan Amum recommitted to a “cessation of hostilities agreement” signed on December 21, 2017.

Source: Sudan Tribune

A military-supported meeting began in Khartoum on Saturday in a bid to forge a consensus ending the nine-month political crisis, amid a broad boycott of the revolution’s forces.

The People of Sudan initiative launched by a religious leader, al-Tayeb Aljid kicked off a two-day conference at the Friendship Hall in Khartoum to discuss the appointment of a prime minister who can form a new civilian government to achieve the remaining reforms and prepare for elections.

The opening session of the conference was attended by former Darfur Governor Tijani al-Sisi, former Minister of Health, Bahr Abu Garda, former Interior and Information Minister, Ahmed Balal Osman, and former Presidential Assistant Musa Mohamed Ahmed, among other political figures that were allied with the al-Bashir’s regime.

In addition, attended the meeting some tribal leaders, most notably the Handawa tribal leader, Mohamed al-Amin Turek, and al-Mahameed tribal, Musa Hilal, together with some representatives of youth and women groups affiliated with the dissolved National Congress Party.

The opening session was attended by several diplomats from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the African Union and IGAD.

The crowd chanted slogans against “foreign interference” in Sudanese affairs, “UNITAMS” and others in support of the army.

“People of Sudan” conference is the result of the efforts of 40 political initiatives seeking to find a solution to the current crisis, with the participation of about 120 parties,” said the initiator of the meeting al-Tayeb Aljid in a speech at the opening session.

He said that the talks he held with the political forces unanimously agreed that the relationship between the people, the armed forces and other regular agencies is above rivalry or conflict, but rather a patriotic duty.

He further said they still hope that those who did not take part in the meeting would join calls for reconciliation, even if they have reservations or opposed the initiative.

“There is nothing between us and them except the love of the homeland and respect for their right to disagree,” he added.

The meeting was boycotted by the Forces for Freedom and Change, the National Consensus, the Resistance Committees and the Sudanese Communist Party.

Former regime’s plan

Jaffar Hassan, an FFC Spokesman told Sudan Tribune that this meeting is nonsense because it aims to implement a scheme concocted by the former regime and the army leaders.

“The military government and the former regime think they can form a (transitional) government that they would deceive the international community through the word ‘People of Sudan’. But this will not fool anyone,” Hassan added.

In the same trend, Wagdi Salih an FFC leading member described the meeting as a”falsification of facts”.

This conference is “the same script and book that ousted President al-Bashir and his regime read from.” he further told Sudan Tribune.

While, Noreldaem Taha Deputy Secretary-General of the National Consensus coalition and a close aide to Minni Minnawi said that they did not participate in the conference, despite their “deep belief in dialogue as the most effective means to reach consensus.”

He did not further elaborate on the reason for this boycott as they had been enthusiasts for the initiative.

On August 8, Hafiz Abdel Nabi, Head of the National Consensus Political Committee of the National Consensus coalition rejected the People of Sudan initiative saying it is made by Islamist elements of the former regime.

“The initiative of the People of Sudan is a circumvention of the project of the revolution by obscurantist forces,” Abdel Nab told Sudan Tribune.

Source: Sudan Tribune